We are 10 weeks through the NFL season and clear tiers have been made. Although the race for the top seeds in the upcoming playoff race is extremely tight, we also see a largely clogged race for the bottom of the league as ELEVEN teams have either 2 or 3 wins so far. With team records being as tight as they are, we need to go deeper into analytics to truly separate them. It's easy to tell which teams should be 1-10, 11-20 and 21-32, but where should each of those teams be ranked inside of those groups?
With statistical analysis of teams' offenses, defenses, strength of schedule and turnover rate we can really see which teams have a shot at a Super Bowl and which team have a shot at the #1 pick come April. I have placed each teams into one of six tiers:
1. Super Bowl or Bust
2. Legit Contenders
3. Just Shy of Contending
4. Just Don't Have Enough
5. Better Luck Next Season
6. Legit Trash
SUPER BOWL OR BUST Tier
1. Lions 9-1
ORank: 1st 33.6 PPG
DRank: 5th 17.7 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 21st (.4803)
2. Bills 9-2
ORank: 3rd 29.1 PPG
DRank: 9th 19.5 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 22nd (.4655)
3. Chiefs 9-1
ORank: 11th 24 PPG
DRank: 8th 19.1 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 14th (.5094)
4. Steelers 8-2
ORank: 15th 23.3 PPG
DRank: 2nd 16.2 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: T-23rd (.4571)
5. Vikings 8-2
ORank: 10th 24.4 PPG
DRank: 4th 17 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 25th (.451)
6. Ravens 7-4
ORank: 2nd 30.4 PPG
DRank: 23rd 24.6 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: T-15th (.5088)
LEGIT CONTENDERS Tier
7. Eagles 8-2
ORank: 7th 25.9 PPG
DRank: 6th 17.9 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 31st (.3905)
8. Packers 7-3
ORank: T-8th 25 PPG
DRank: 10th 21.3 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 5th (.5392)
9. Commanders 7-3
ORank: 4th 28.0 PPG
DRank: 14th 22.1 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 28th (.4464)
10. Texans 7-4
ORank: 14th 23.5 PPG
DRank: 11th 21.5 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: T-18th (.500)
11. Cardinals 6-4
ORank: 13th 23.8 PPG
DRank: T-12th 22.0 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 3rd (.577)
12. Chargers 7-3
ORank: 18th 22 PPG
DRank: 1st 14.5 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 27th (.4466)
13. Broncos 6-5
ORank: 20th 21.4 PPG
DRank: 4th 16.6 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: T-15th (.5088)
ALMOST THERE Tier
14. Rams 5-5
ORank: 21st 21.3 PPG
DRank: 22nd 23.9 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 10th (.5248)
15. Seahawks 5-5
ORank: 16th 23 PPG
DRank: 21st 23.8 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 11th (.5192)
16. 49ers 5-5
ORank: T-8th 25 PPG
DRank: T-16th 22.2 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: T-18th (.500)
17. Bengals 4-7
ORank: 6th 27.0 PPG
DRank: 28th 26.9 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: T-18th (.500)
18. Falcons 6-5
ORank: 17th 22.2 PPG
DRank: 25th 24.9 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 12th (.5133)
19. Buccaneers 4-6
ORank: 5th 27.9 PPG
DRank: 27th 26.6 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 1st (.6321)
DON'T HAVE ENOUGH Tier
20. Dolphins 4-6
ORank: 27th 18.1 PPG DRank: T-14th 22.1 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: T-23rd (.4571)
21. Bears 4-5
ORank: 22nd 19.4 PPG
DRank: 7th 18.7 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 26th (.4476)
22. Colts 5-6
ORank: 19th 21.5 PPG
DRank: 19th 22.7 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 9th (.5304)
23. Jets 3-8
ORank: 26th 18.5 PPG
DRank: T-12th 22 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 6th (.5345)
24. Saints 4-7
ORank: 12th 23.8 PPG
DRank: 20th 23.6 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 17th (.5044)
BETTER LUCK NEXT SEASON Tier
25. Patriots 3-7
ORank: 30th 16.5 PPG
DRank: 18th 22.5 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 32nd (.3826)
26. Jaguars 2-9
ORank: 23rd 18.9 PPG
DRank: 30th 28.7 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 2nd (.5789)
27. Cowboys 3-7
ORank: 24th 18.7 PPG
DRank: 31st 29.3 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 13th (.5096)
28. Panthers 3-7
ORank: 29th 16.7 PPG
DRank: 32nd 31.0 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: T-29th (.4381)
LEGIT TRASH Tier
30. Titans 2-7
ORank: 28th 17 PPG
DRank: 26th 26.3 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: 4th (.5673)
27. Browns 2-8
ORank: 31st 16.2 PPG
DRank: 24th 24.8 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: T-29th (.4381)
31. Giants 2-8
ORank: 32nd 15.6 PPG
DRank: T-16th 22.2 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: T-7th (.534)
32. Raiders 2-8
ORank: 25th 18.7 PPG
DRank: 29th 28.5 PPGA
Strength of Schedule: T-7th (.534)
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Make sure to stay tuned as we continue coverage of the 2024 NFL season.
-Z.D.
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