Denver Broncos
Cap Space: $34.8 Million
Coaching Changes:
Darren Rizzi - Special Teams Coordinator
Key Departures:
Javonte Williams RB
DJ Jones DT
Cody Barton LB
Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR
Matt Pearl OT
Justin Strnad LB
Heading into last season, the Broncos were projected a Top-3 pick after the Russell Wilson-fiasco. Sean Payton showed how great of a coach he is by bringing a rookie-led, average roster at best to the playoffs for the first time in 8 years. The team was duct-taped together under salary restraints while being led by Bo Nix, who was thought to be a desperation move at pick #12 last year and future bust. Nix not only surpassed all expectations but also proved that we should not undervalue Payton's ability to lead a team.
Now fast-forward one year and the Broncos are not in desperation mode but comfortably reloading for Nix's second season and the first offseason with spending money in Payton's tenure. The team will need to add some weapons especially after the head-turning trade of Jerry Jeudy. Some additional front seven personnel will be expected after some Free Agent loss including a new MLB starter. The Broncos' defense has potential to be a top unit in the league with emerging superstars Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen with new DPOY Pat Surtain leading the charge. Adding pieces to complete the side will be on Payton's mind and I believe he will prioritize it over offensive needs.
Free Agent Predictions
With the defense one or two pieces away from being elite and the offense needing several weapons around Nix, I think it's time for Payton to go for home runs not singles. Adding 2 or 3 very impactful players in Free Agency will do this team better than adding 5 or 6 good players that may help or may fall into the background. Dre Greenlaw is a very interesting player who's already stated he wants to be LB1 for a contending defense. His market value is about $10 million and the Broncos could be such a great fit for both sides. A valuable veteran like BJ Hill or Greg Gaines would also fit nice in the scheme and replace DJ Jones right away.
For the offense, a true playmaker at all three skill positions will be needed but one "sure-thing" is better than multiple possibilities. Najee Harris has been underappreciated by the Steelers and for a projected $ 9 Million a year could be the safety net Bo Nix needs.
Draft Predictions
The Broncos hold the #20 and #51 picks in the draft and in my most-recent Mock Draft 3.0, (https://www.fansonlysportz.com/post/zak-drapeau-s-nfl-mock-draft-3-0-1) the Broncos had WR Luther Burden fall to them at 20 and then take a shot at Safety Nick Emmanwori at 51. The fall of Burden to 20 would be the best-case scenario for Denver whose next best option would be TE Coslton Loveland at this spot. Burden is a shifty slot WR with great speed and hands. A perfect compliment to Courtland Sutton's downfield threat and a much needed short-target for a young QB.
Emmanwori would be a project pick for the Broncos and one I believe Payton would love to take. The 6'4", 235-pound Safety would need a year on the bench to adjust his coverage skills to the pros but if he can, (and under Vance Joseph's tutelage I think he'd thrive) he could bring a new dynamic to an already great secondary similar to what Derwin James brought the Chargers.
Kansas City Chiefs
Cap Space: $ 941 Thousand
Coaching Changes:
N/A
Key Departures:
Travis Kelce TE ???????
Trey Smith OG
Nick Bolton LB
Justin Reid FS
DeAndre Hopkins WR
Tershawn Wharton DT
Marquis Brown WR
Kareem Hunt RB
Mike Pennel DT
The Chiefs came just short of the first NFL Three-Peat ever and now head into the offseason just trying to make it back. They will have some roster turn around as they have for the past 3 offseasons and have some glaring holes on both sides of the ball to fill. The biggest of which will be Offensive Weapons; a need for 2 years now but one that will take on a new urgency. With D-Hop, Hollywood, JuJu and Justin Watson all departing, only Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice and Skyy Moore will remain on the roster, (only 1 of whom may miss next season due to criminal charges.) The real kicker is the possible retirement of Travis Kelce. Patrick Mahomes may be a generational talent but even he needs some weapons around him.
The defense has even more holes with Pro Bowl starters Nick Bolton and Justin Reid set to test the open market. Not to mention 4 Defensive Linemen who each played more than 20% of the team's snaps will also be heading out the door. Some positions have possible replacements on the roster already but the Chiefs will have to pull some major magic in the coming months.
Free Agent Predictions
Without a lot of money to spend, the Chiefs will have to either cut and make space or be EXTREMELY frugal. A possible retirement of Travis Kelce could be helpful in salary cap restraints, freeing $ 17 Milllion while adding $ 2.5 Million in Dead Cap. If that were to happen the Chiefs could go and sign a LB like Devin Bush for $ 3 Million, a Safety like Xavier Woods for $ 4.5 Million and a reliable WR like Van Jefferson or Ashton Dulin for less than $ 2 Million.
Grabbing cheap pieces and coaching them to be beyond their value is what the Chiefs do. However if Kelce does stay, the Chiefs won't even be able to do that. Couple that with Kelce's worst season as a pro in a decade and the Chiefs may be ready to move on.
Draft Predictions
The Chiefs will hold the #31 and #63 picks in the draft come April and there picks will have to be of their needs they aren't able to fill in Free Agency. I've projected Jayden Higgins in the first round; a tall and strong WR out of Iowa State that would give Mahomes a big target-WR he's never had before. Higgins needs some work in route-running but looks to be the next DK Metcalf in the league.
At 63, I have the Chiefs taking Jacob Parrish, a Kansas State CB who could translate nicely to a NB or even Safety. Playing a role like Justin Reid's over the past few years, Parrish would be a great player in this secondary thanks to his speed and tackling ability. Two small steps toward rebuilding this team instead of reloading in Free Agency... The smart way.
Las Vegas Raiders
Cap Space: $ 92.7 Million
Coaching Changes:
Pete Carroll - Head Coach
Chip Kelly - Offensive Coordinator
Key Departures:
Trevon Moehrig FS
Robert Spillane LB
Marcus Epps SS
Nate Hobbs CB
Malcolm Koonce DE
Adam Butler DT
Divine Diablo LB
John Jenkins DT
Alexander Mattison RB
Ameer Abdullah RB
K'Lavon Chaisson DE
Needs
SAF x2 CB x2 RB WR 3/4 DT OC 3/4 OLB MLB B 3/4 DE
I have no idea if the Raiders are in a good place because of the new coaching regime or a terrible place because of... well everything else that's happened to this team in the last couple of years. The Antonio Pierce-era was short lived and created separation within the team and loss of several key players. Besides Maxx Crosby, the defense will need to be entirely rebuilt and the offense will need to be reloaded around an actually impressive offensive line.
The good thing for the Raiders is the impressive coach signings of Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly. Carroll has a history of building elite defenses and even though Kelly's tenure in the NFL, (Eagles HC 2013-15, 49ers HC 2016) was unimpressive, if his work as an OC at the collegiate level is any indication of what it could be in the NFL, the Raiders are in great hands.
Free Agent Predictions
The Raiders are in complete rebuild mode with a fresh start on the horizon, with a shiny, new Head Coach, a pass-rushing superstar and a very solid and young O-Line. The rest of the team will need to be addressed and the team has more than $90 Million to do so. A Free Agent QB will be the first priority; likely Justin Fields and possibly Sam Darnold. A possible double-down could come in the draft but that shouldn't stop them from making the move.
Carroll's defensive identity has been about tall, physical and athletic players at every position, creating a real smash-mouth defense. Players like CB Carlton Davis, SAF Jevon Holland, DE Chase Young and DE Josh Sweat all meet the physical guidelines and are some of the most sought after Free Agents this year. Signing top Free Agents are a must this season but signing Free Agents with a future needs to be part of it, as no matter how much magic Caroll can bring to this team they are still at least 2 years away from being any kind of a contender.
Draft Predictions
The Raiders hold a very valuable #6 pick and #37 in the second-round. The Raiders have a chance to draft a QB at 6 even if they sign one inf Free Agency, a Jordan Love or maybe Michael Penix Jr. type of situation. However, in my mock draft I have them taking the best Receiver in the class, Tetairoa McMillan. McMillan's size and speed is extremely rare and his improvements in route running this past year has truly seperated him from his peers. A replacement-Davante Adams for whoever the new QB is that will pair with Brock Bowers and instantly make for an elite skill positional group.
At 37 I have them taking RB Omarion Hampton from UNC, a powerful and quick runner with good receiving upside. Hampton is my RB2 of the class and, paired with a FA signed RB, should make his presence felt immediately.
Los Angeles Chargers
Cap Space: $63.4 Million
Coaching Changes:
N/A
Key Departures:
Khalil Mack OLB
Asante Samuel Jr. CB
Bradley Bozeman OC
JK Dobbins RB
Elijah Molden CB
Kristian Fulton CB
Joshua Palmer WR
Morgan Fox DE
JK Scott P
Poona Ford DT
The Chargers took a great step in Harbaugh's first year at the helm and created a strong team mentality that makes them feel destined for a Super Bowl in the future. For now though, they need offensive weapons after allowing Josh Palmer and JK Dobbins leave to Free Agency. They also will need Cornerbacks after surprising allowing there top three all leave including Pro Bowler Asante Samuel Jr. Harbaugh is making no gripe about it, the Chargers are his team and he's going to build a winner just like he did in Michigan but the Samuel Jr. departure has me really scratching my head.
The Chargers barely missed out on the postseason after having the best ranked defense in the entire league and having a new-look, run heavy offense. The Chargers have a strong core on defense and a good start on offense along with superior offensive-minded coaching and over $ 60 Million to spend.
Free Agent Predictions
Harbaugh and company will likely go after cheap, undervalued players just like last year except for a possible highly-touted Cornerback like Carlton Davis. A running back like Javonte Williams or AJ Dillon would fit perfectly in this offense and would only cost about $ 6 or 7 Million. A new pass rusher to replace Khalil Mack will be tougher to find in this class but a player like Marcus Davenport could be a good start for a quarter of the money.
Harbaugh would rather pay cheap and draft well then to splurge on or trade for high targets. The ability his coaching staff has to coach players into their full potential will rival any checkbook around the league. 5 or 6 cheap but valuable targets can easily fill the gaps of players lost.
Draft Predictions
The Chargers have the #22 and #55 pick in the draft this year and will likely fill some gaps that weren't fully filled in FA. In my mock, I have the Michigan connection coming full circle at 22 with TE Colston Loveland, a strong pass catcher with slot abilities similar but not as good as Brock Bowers. Harbaugh has shown a fondness for drafting from top schools in the trenches so I have him taking DT Josh Farmer at pick #55 to fit nicely at the 3-tech. Both players will fill needs for the team in pass catching and run stopping respectively while fitting the mold of "Harbaugh-guys".
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Make sure to stay tuned in as we continue coverage of the NFL Offseason and Draft Coverage all the way to the big day on April 27th.
-Z.D.
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