My F1Saudi Arabian Grand Prix Predictions
- Matt Hylen
- 11 minutes ago
- 9 min read
Round 5 of the Formula 1 season is upon is, as the teams travel to Saudi Arabia for this one. The drivers will dribe 50 laps around this beautiful circut, defying the limits and pushing their cars to the test. With the barriers extra narrow around the track, perfection is required if you want to finish this race.
Before we get into my predictions for every team this weekend, a reresher of how each Championship works and the current standings as they stand now.
Formula One has two main championship competitions. The first is the Drivers' Championship, which is a competition between the drivers' individual performance. On a non-Sprint style weekend, the drivers who finish in the top 10 in each race will score points (the higher you place, the more points you get). These points are added up, and whichever driver finishes with the most points at the end of the season will win the Drivers' Championship.
The next is the Constructors' Championship, a competition between the teams. The number of points the drivers within a team get each race is combined, creating the total points for the team (E.g., Lando Norris has scored 77 points, and Oscar Piastri has scored 74 points, giving the McLaren team 151 points in the Constructors' Championship). The team whose drivers accumulate the most points combined for their team will win the Constructors' Championship.
Now here is a look at the standings for both Championships:
Drivers' Championship Standings:
Lando Norris 77 points
Oscar Piastri 74 points
Max Verstappen 69 points
George Russell 63 points
Charles Leclerc 32 points
Andrea Kimi Antonellii 30 points
Lewis Hamilton 25 points
Alexander Albon 18 points
Esteban Ocon 14 points
Lance Stroll 10 points
Pierre Gasly 6 points
Nico Hulkenberg 6 points
Oliver Bearman 6 points
Yuki Tsunoda 5 points
Isak Hadjar 4 points
Carlos Sainz 1 points
Fernando Alonso 0 points
Liam Lawson 0 points
Jack Doohan 0 points
Gabriel Bortoletto 0 points
Constructors' Championship Standings:
McLaren 151 points
Mercedes 93 points
Red Bull 71 points
Ferrari 57 points
Haas 20 points
Williams 19 points
Aston Martin 10 points
Racing Bulls 7 points
Alpine 6 points
Kick Sauber 6 points
Standings were found at F1.com.
Alpine
Alpine has already seemed to have picked up where they left off last week by setting great lap times in both practice sessions thus far. It was surprising to see Gasly do that well in FP1; however, if the car can perform around this track (which so far it looks likely), Gasly can turn a lot of heads this weekend with back-to-back good performances.
Though it is one of the three teams to have not brought any upgrade package to their car this weekend, I still believe points are in the cards for the team. Yes, practice sessions are not usually representative of real pace, but Gasly looks more comfortable in the car right now than we have seen in a long time.
Gasly's teammate, Jack Doohan, does seem far off Gasly's pace (9 tenths of a second in FP1 and about 8 tenths of a second in FP2), but coming off a good bounce-back weekend in Bahrain, I think there is a chance he could qualify well on Saturday. Free Practice sessions for Doohan at this stage should be about confidence building rather than showing off qualifying or race pace. The car looks pretty good right now, so I think Doohan will be a midfield contender behind Gasly this weekend.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 6th-8th place finish for Gasly and 11th-13th place finish for Doohan
Floor: 10th-12th place finish for Gasly and 15th-17th place finish for Doohan
Aston Martin
Aston Martin have not looked good in practice so far, and I expect no less from them as the weekend progresses. The car has looked terrible the past two weekends, and with no sign of intent to improve it this season, I expect the team to be amongst the worst on the grid.
Aston Martin are bringing a track-specific upgrade this weekend, with the goal of decreasing the amount of drag they are experiencing. More specifically, they are changing the rear wing flap so it isn't as aggressive, which hopefully will help the airflow load coming through the rear wing. This isn't necessarily an upgrade in my mind, but rather a major adjustment. I would not read too much into this.
Overall, Aston Martin will need a lot of luck if they want any chance of scoring a point this weekend. Fernando Alonso is definitely talented enough to pull something out of nowhere, but in the meantime, expect the team to be bottom-dwellers in qualifying and the race.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 11th-13th place finish for Alonso and 13th-15th place finish for Stroll
Floor: 15th-17th place finish for Alonso and 20th place finish for Stroll
Ferrari
After a promising weekend in Bahrain, I think Ferrari will have another chance of fighting for a podium in Saudi Arabia.
Ferrari has introduced another upgrade package for their car this weekend, featuring several adjustments to their rear and beam wings to accommodate the track. The team has reduced the size of the rear wing by installing a shorter chord top rear wing flap and has "offloaded" both the top rear wing and part of the lower beam wing. This adjustment angles the two wings to decrease drag and, ideally, enhance performance.
With the underfloor upgrade working last weekend, I expect the upgrades to the wings to work nicely for both drivers. Though they have not shown any real pace in the first two practice sessions, it can be assumed that the team, as well as the drivers, are trying to gain data on how effective the new upgrades are.
I think that, come qualifying, we will see Ferrari compete with Mercedes as the second fastest car overall.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 3rd-5th place finish for both drivers
Floor: 5th-8th place finish for both drivers
Haas
For Haas, as long as they can fix their qualifying pace, I think they will have a great weekend once again. The race pace has been great all year long; however, that has yet to translate to qualifying consistently.
The two Haas drivers, Esteban Ocon and Ollie Bearman, will be getting some reinforcements in terms of race-specific upgrades this weekend. They have adjusted the angle of the rear wing assemblies, using two "carry-over rear wings" from last year's car. The hope is that both of these rear wings decrease aerodynamic drag and airflow load levels.
I am absolutely in on Haas this weekend. I think the changes they have made for the race will complement their car nicely, especially at a track that suits their style of car. They also would not have used last year's rear wing design if they did not feel that it would work. I think that, with the likes of Williams and Racing Bulls struggling, Haas could be on track for another potential double-points finish.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 7th-9th place finish for both drivers
Floor: 11th-13th place finish for both drivers
Kick Sauber
Though Gabriel Bortoletto may be giving a thumbs-up, I will be giving Kick Sauber's chances this weekend a thumbs-down as we head into Saudi Arabia.
Though the team is bringing track-specific upgrades this weekend to their front wing and underfloor, I expect both drivers to struggle for any sort of pace all weekend long. I do think Nico Hulkenberg can pull a "Nico Hulkenberg" and outperform the car by getting it into Q2, but other than that, the car has no pace whatsoever, making any sort of hope a lost cause. All there is to look out for is how the two drivers stack up against one another, which will likely favor Hulkenberg.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 15th-17th place finish for both drivers
Floor: 20th place finish for both drivers
McLaren
Since McLaren got beaten by an Alpine in FP1, it clearly looks like they are washed...
In all seriousness though, McLaren should dominate again this weekend. The two aerodynamic upgrades they are bringing to the rear wing should only increase the odds of finishing best of the rest.
My only concern for McLaren going into this weekend is Norris' comfort with the car. We all know the package McLaren has is far and away the fastest, and we also know that Oscar Piastri has looked fantastic the past couple of races. However, Norris' performance suddenly took a bit of a dive in Bahrain last weekend. If Norris wants to win the Drivers' Championship, he cannot have many more weekends like the last, especially with the form Oscar is in. He needs to gain his confidence back, which I think he can do starting this weekend. Keep an eye out for Norris this weekend.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 1st place finish for both drivers
Floor: 2nd-4th place finish for both drivers
Mercedes
Coming off an up-and-down weekend in Bahrain, I think we will see more of the same from Mercedes in Saudi Arabia.
Though there are no reported upgrades to the car this weekend, I think Mercedes will be just fine. The car they've run thus far has been consistently fast, with both drivers feeling confident within it. Fresh off a new two-year contract extension, I think George Russell can fight for another podium. He has been so good to start the year with no sign of slowing down. There will be a time when Russell comes down to earth a little, but I do not think we will see it this weekend.
Russell's teammate, Kimi Antonelli, just needs to do what he has been doing. If he does that, I think we will see him among the top of the grid. His qualifying has gotten better with every race, while showing in multiple instances that he is not afraid to fight other cars for positioning. His aggressiveness could backfire on him this weekend, considering the zero room for error this track provides, but I am not too worried for Kimi.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 3rd-5th place finish for Russell and 4th-6th place finish for Antonelli
Floor: 5th-7th place finish for Russell and 8th-11th place finish for Antonelli
Racing Bulls
A disappointing performance in Bahrain has me skeptical of RB coming into this weekend; however, I am predicting the team to bounce back.
RB is another team bringing a track-specific upgrade this weekend, and the team has introduced adjustments to the front wing, rear wing, and beam wings, with the hope of reducing drag. With the car already suited for high-speed style tracks, the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix has come at the perfect time for RB.
RB's track record so far at high-speed tracks is what gives me hope for a better performance. The car was among the best within the midfield at both China and Japan, showing that RB is suited for more straight-line and high-speed cornered tracks. Saudi Arabia fits that mold. Even with the likes of Liam Lawson struggling, I think this is the weekend where RB, including both its drivers, get back on track.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 8th-10th place finish for Hadjar and 12th-14th place finish for Lawson
Floor: 12th-14th place finish for Hadjar and 15th-17th place finish for Lawson
Red Bull
Look away Red Bull fans...
The weekend has already picked up where Red Bull left off last weekend, as the car showed no real pace, with Yuki Tsunoda binning it into the wall in practice. Granted, when Max Verstappen is your driver, truly anything can happen, but the car itself does not look like it has improved.
The team are bringing upgrades to the car, specifically to their engine cooling system (enlarged engine cover) and their beam wings (similar to Ferrari). The hope is that they can salvage any sort of downforce that the car is not really producing at the moment.
With both drivers clearly struggling to feel comfortable in the car, we might see a repeat of last weekend in Saudi Arabia. I will never count out Max Verstappen, thus I will not be surprised if he somehow finishes on the podium, but there is only so much a driver can do if the car just isn't good.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 3rd-5th place finish for Verstappen and 8th-10th place finish for Tsunoda
Floor: 6th-8th place finish for Verstappen and 13th-15th place finish for Tsunoda
Williams
Call me crazy, but I think this could finally be the weekend we see both Williams drivers score points.
Even with no new upgrades to speak of, both Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon finally are starting to look comfortable with the car at the same time. Their pace in practice, though not entirely representative, looks decent for both Sainz and Albon as well. Williams have always performed better at high-speed tracks. With Saudi Arabia proving just that, I think this is the perfect weekend for Williams to impress.
With that said, I expect, at the minimum, for both drivers to make it into Q3 and to be fighting for points. Considering how the track suits the car, it would be a disappointment if the team is not achieving to that level, or at least close to it.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 7th-10th place finish for both drivers
Floor: 9th-12th place finish for both drivers
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Until next time!
-Matt Hylen
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