top of page
Search

Japanese Grand Prix Race Preview


Round 3 of the 2025 Formula One season is officially underway, and boy, are we in for a treat! The cars are ready, qualifying is done and dusted, and all that is left is the 53-lap race in possibly wet conditions.


Before we get into the preview, a couple of things to mention:


Authors Note 1: The Formula One Season has two main championship competitions. The first is the Drivers' Championship, which is a competition between the individual drivers. The drivers who finish in the top 10 each weekend will score points (the higher you place, the more points you get). These points are added up, and whichever driver finishes with the most points at the end of the season will win the Drivers' Championship.


The next is the Constructors' Championship, a competition between the teams. The number of points the drivers within a team get each race is combined, creating the total points for the team (E.g., Lando Norris has scored 44 points, and Oscar Piastri has scored 34 points, giving the McLaren team 78 points in the Constructors' Championship). The team whose drivers accumulate the most points combined for their team will win the Constructors' Championship.


Authors Note 2: One driver will be listed as "NC" in the Drivers' Standings. This means "Not Classified", indicating that they have not completed a race yet this season, thus they cannot be given a position among the standings.



Now, here is a look at the standings for both Championships:


Drivers' Championship Standings:

  1. Lando Norris 44 points

  2. Max Verstappen 36 points

  3. Geroge Russell 35 points

  4. Oscar Piastri 34 points

  5. Andrea Kimi Antonellii 22 points

  6. Alexander Albon 16 points

  7. Esteban Ocon 10 points

  8. Lance Stroll 10 points

  9. Lewis Hamilton 9 points

  10. Charles Leclerc 8 points

  11. Nico Hulkenberg 6 points

  12. Oliver Bearman 4 points

  13. Yuki Tsunoda 3 points

  14. Carlos Sainz 1 points

  15. Isak Hadjar 0 points

  16. Pierre Gasly 0 points

  17. Liam Lawson 0 points

  18. Jack Doohan 0 points

  19. Gabriel Bortoletto 0 points

N.C. Fernando Alonso


Constructors' Championship Standings:

  1. McLaren 78 points

  2. Mercedes 57 points

  3. Red Bull 36 points

  4. Williams 17 points

  5. Ferrari 17 points

  6. Haas 14 points

  7. Aston Martin 10 points

  8. Kick Sauber 6 points

  9. Racing Bulls 3 points

  10. Alpine 0 points


Standings were found at F1.com.  


Alpine

After a wild practice, which saw Jack Doohan crash into the wall at 180mph on turn 1, Alpine did not look half bad in qualifying. Though Doohan qualified 19th for the race, it was hard to expect much more considering the nature of the crash he had in the second practice session. Pierre Gasly, on the other hand, seemed pretty quick for Alpine's standards, as he starts 11th on the grid.


Alpine needs to show their car has race pace if they want any sort of promising result in Japan. Gasly starting in front of both Aston Martins, a Red Bull in Yuki Tsunoda, and a Williams in Carlos Sainz, will make it extremely difficult for him to maintain his position. They have a great chance to score a couple of points this weekend, but Gasly will have a lot of work to do if he wants to achieve that goal for the team. However, if anyone can hold off drivers behind them, it's Pierre Gasly.


For Doohan, he just needs to gain confidence as the race progresses and keep the car on the track. That crash was absolutely brutal, and one in which I am sure rattled Jack a little bit. The car does look pretty competitive this weekend, which should create the expectation that Doohan will make up some ground, but I for one am not too hopeful.


Prediction:

Ceiling: 9th-11th place finish for Gasly and 15th-17th place finish for Doohan


Floor: 14th-16th place finish for Gasly and 20th place finish for Doohan



Aston Martin

Aston Martin looked surprisingly quick in qualifying. Though it may not look like it on paper with Fernando Alonso qualifying 13th (but starting 12th due to Carlos Sainz's grid penalty) and Lance Stroll starting 20th, I have some faith in Aston Martin this weekend.


First off, Stroll did go back to doing typical Lance Stroll things, as he went wide on his final flying lap. (a flying lap is basically when the driver attempts to drive the best lap time they can). However, he and Alonso have looked close in terms of pace all weekend long, which is a promising sign. Stroll will have some work to do, but I think that car has enough pace in it for him to gain some places.


Alonso, though disappointing in Q2, still looked very decent and competitive with the cars in front of him. He was less than a tenth of a second off of making it into Q3, which should allow him to compete for points this weekend. I expect Alonso to put together not only his first race finish of the season, but also one that'll get him near or inside of the points.


Prediction:

Ceiling: 8th-10th place finish for Alonso and 14th-16th place finish for Stroll


Floor: 13th-16th place finish for Alonso and 17th-19th place finish for Stroll



Ferrari

Honestly, I was expecting a little more from Ferrari in qualifying. Japan has always been a track Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton have performed well at, but I was a little underwhelmed by their pace. The Ferrari drivers both made it comfortably into Q3, with Leclerc finishing 4th and Hamilton finishing 8th.


Though Hamilton got blocked on his last flying lap by Carlos Sainz (an act that penalized Sainz), he was still unimpressive. Lewis was still about three-tenths off of Leclerc in Q3, who was about 3-tenths off of pole position (1st place), so there was no real sign of competitive driving from either of them.


With both drivers being disqualified last race weekend, Ferrari needs to step up in Japan. They need to get the strategy right, and somehow find some pace in the race. A lot of times, cars will be faster in the race than in qualifying, or vice versa, due to the setup the driver decides to go with. It is because of this that Ferrari maybe could gain some ground and get some good points, but it is not looking good for them. Granted, points should absolutely be a given this weekend, yet Ferrari are still miles off the pace of the McLarens and Max Verstappen. I expect them to finish around where they start this week, no more no less.


Prediction:

Ceiling: 4th-6th place finish for both drivers


Floor: 6th-8th place finish for both drivers



Haas

In what looked to be a nightmare for Hass, Oliver Beaman, seemingly out of nowhere, turned heads with a performance that got him into Q3. With Bearman starting in 10th, Haas could actually salvage what was going to be a horrible weekend.


In all honesty, with how the car has looked in Japan, Bearman should have finished qualifying around the same place in which his teammate, Esteban Ocon, finished (18th). The car just did not look good whatsoever in practice, but somehow Ollie was able to make something out of nothing and put together the best qualifying performance of his young career.


In terms of expectations come the race, I think it'll be extremely difficult for Bearman to maintain a point-scoring position on the grid throughout the race. Luck may need to swing Haas' way if they want a chance of scoring points. This track, unfortunately, does not suit their car, and it showed in Ocon's poor pace in qualifying. The high-speed corners, with the track's ability to wear down tires, I think will get the best of Haas this weekend.


Prediction:

Ceiling: 10th-13th place finish for Bearman and 14th-16th place finish for Ocon


Floor: 15th-17th place finish for Bearman and 17th-20th place finish for Ocon



Kick Sauber

Kick Sauber did not look like the worst car on the grid in practice or qualifying, which for them is a win. With Gabriel Bortoletto qualifying 17th and Nico Hulkenberg 16th, they are still among the bottom of the grid but still are not last.


Sauber's goal this weekend should be to get through the race undamaged, and to get more of an idea regarding how Bortoletto compares to Hulkenberg in the race. Gabriel has shown that he can match Nico's in qualifying and has even out-qualified him, but the jury is still out on whether he can match Hulkenberg's race pace. Sure, Bortoletto finished ahead of this teammate in China, however, that was more due to Hulkenberg screwing up at the start of the race.


However, with that being said, I do think that come the race, both drivers will plummet to the very bottom of the grid. They just are not fast whatsoever. You can tell Bortoletto and Hulkenberg are giving it everything they have, even taking risks that they probably should not be taking, yet they couldn't sniff Q2. Expect Kick Sauber to do Kick Sauber things in the race.


Prediction

Ceiling: 15th-17th place finish for both drivers


Floor: 20th place finish for both drivers



McLaren

Though McLaren was robbed of a front-row lockout (1st and 2nd place finish in qualifying), they will still be the team to beat in the race. If it weren't for a record-breaking lap by Max Verstappen, McLaren would be exactly where they expected to be.


With Lando Norris starting 2nd and Oscar Piastri 3rd, they have another great chance to dominate yet another race. Verstappen will put up a great fight, but McLaren is on an entirely different level right now. I expect at least one, if not both, McLaren drivers to have overtaken Verstappen within the first three laps. Considering how much quicker McLaren is than every other car, anything other than a lockout will be a disappointment for the team


Prediction:

Ceiling: 1st place finish for both drivers


Floor: 2nd-4th place finish for both drivers



Mercedes

Mercedes have looked good so far this weekend. They are still proving to be the second-fastest car overall, and consistently putting themself in a position to compete for a podium.


Starting with George Russell, it looked as though he was primed for a podium start for the race. His lap times were superb all qualifying long until a wide run going into turn 2 caused him to lose out of a possible podium finish in qualifying. The mistake caused him a 5th-place finish in qualifying, but I am not worried for him. He has shown great pace all weekend long, and a consistent pace at that. George should absolutely fight for a podium again this weekend.


Russell's teammate also did pretty well in qualifying. Kimi Antonelli was able to improve his best lap time with each session, giving him a 6th-place start in the race. He will have his work cut out for him with a Ferrari in Lewis Hamilton behind him, but the pace of the Mercedes should help fend him off. The gap between him and Russell in qualifying is still a little concerning, however, that will come with time. I expect Antonelli to have another nice weekend and score good points for the team.


Prediction:

Ceiling: 3rd-5th place finish for Russell and 5th-7th place finish for Antonelli

Floor: 4th-6th place finish for Russell and 8th-10th place finish for Antonelli



Racing Bulls

Well... this will be interesting.


Racing Bulls have put together another strong start to the weekend. Rookie Isak Hadjar, despite having to fight through severe problems with the seat belt of his car, was incredible in qualifying. He will be starting in 7th, which all things considered is as good as it could've gotten for Racing Bulls.


Now, Liam Lawson. Oh boy, this will be fun. Lawson instantly looked better in the Racing Bulls car, as he got out of Q1 pretty comfortably. The interesting part is he qualified 14th (but will start in 13th due to Carlos Sainz's grid penalty, which is one place in front of... you guessed it... the man who replaced him at Red Bull, Yuki Tsunoda.


We will get more into Tsunoda when we talk about Red Bull, but I fully expect that Lawson will do whatever is necessary to keep Tsunoda behind him. As a fan, one could not have asked for a more dramatic scenario.


For Racing Bulls as a whole, their focus needs to be nailing their race strategy. It has been a brutal start in that department, causing the team valuable points to start the year. The car looks competitive, it is just a matter of whether or not the team will put forth a strategy that will give them the results they should be getting. I expect major waves to be made from Racing Bulls this weekend, and even a potential double-points scenario.


Prediction:

Ceiling: 8th-10th place finish for both drivers


Floor: 12th-15th place finish for both drivers



Red Bull

WHAT. A. LAP.


If you have had any sort of doubt regarding Max Verstappen in any way this year, it is time to put those to rest because he is going to be just fine. Verstappen, to everyone's (including his) surprise, will start on pole for the Japanese Grand Prix. Not only that, but his lap time in Q3 set the all-time record for the fastest lap recorded on this track.


No matter how you feel about Verstappen, you have to respect his talent. That Red Bull car has no business being in the top 5, maybe even the top 10. Yet, race after race, Max silences all the doubters time and time again. Now, in terms of what to expect, I should be saying that a podium should not be in the cards for Red Bull, but if I have learned anything so far this weekend, it is to never doubt Max Verstappen.


Max's new teammate, however, left a lot to be desired in qualifying. Yuki Tsunoda was able to get that car out of Q1 for the first time this season, which was great; but Tsunoda's decision to go for a higher-downforce setup (more speed on corners in exchange for less straight-line speed), backfired in a big way. Though it could have been worse, a 15th-place qualifying finish (will start 14th due to Carlos Sainz's grid penalty) at your home race is disappointing. Tsunoda can only hope that his setup will fare better in the race. That being said, Tsunoda is still very talented and has done an awesome job this season thus far, so I expect him to bounce back in the race and possibly compete for points.


Also, shoutout to Red Bull's special livery, the "White Bull" style looks incredible.


Prediction:

Ceiling: Race win for Verstappen and 9th-11th place finish for Tsunoda


Floor: 4th-6th place finish for Verstappen and 13th-16th place finish for Tsunoda



Williams

Williams seems to have experienced a minor drop-off in pace this weekend. With Albon starting 9th and Saiz starting 15th due to a three-place grid penalty (impeding Hamilton's flying lap), the team will have some work to do if they want to score points.


The biggest thing to look out for this weekend for Williams is Sainz. With Ferrari struggling to start the season and Red Bull still trying to get both drivers in the top ten, this is Williams' chance to score some major points. Yet, Sainz still has not gotten a grip on the car. Albon is doing his job by getting the best out of the car and making it into Q3 once again, however, Sainz has yet to sniff Q3. Though I do think he will figure things out and eventually be on the pace of Albon, he needs to figure out what the problem is before this window closes.


In terms of overall expectations, I anticipate Williams to be competitive once again. The car does not seem to suit the track too well, but with the form Albon is in right now, that should not matter too much. Sainz should gain some places as the race goes on, but I am skeptical about whether of not it'll be enough to score a point or two.


Prediction

Ceiling: 7th-9th place finish for Albon and 10th-12th place finish for Sainz


Floor: 11th-13th place finish for Albon and 13th-15th place finish for Sainz





Stay tuned for more F1 content, and be sure to check out fansonlysportz.com for more sports media content posted daily.


Until next time!

-Matt Hylen

































Comments

bottom of page