Round 21 in São Paulo, Brazil, is underway, and fans should be in for an exciting and entertaining weekend of racing. This iconic track is always known to bring some amazing wheel-to-wheel driving, and with the pack so close this year, 2024 should be no different.
Before we jump into the current standings for both Championships and take a look into what to expect at the São Paulo Grand Prix, a couple of things to mention:
Authors Note 1: The Formula One Season has two main championship competitions. The first is the Drivers' Championship, which is a competition between the individual drivers. The drivers who finish in the top 10 each weekend will score points (the higher you place, the more points you get). These points are added up, and whichever driver finishes with the most points at the end of the season will win the Drivers' Championship. The next is the Constructors' Championship, a competition between the teams. The number of points the drivers within a team get each race is combined, creating the total points for the team (E.g., Lando Norris has scored 315 points, and Oscar Piastri has scored 251 points, giving the McLaren team 566 points in the Constructors' Championship). The team whose drivers accumulate the most points combined for their team will win the Constructors' Championship.
Author's Note 2: This weekend's race will be a sprint-style format. A sprint race is a race with fewer laps that gives the drivers an opportunity to score extra points. It is meant to not only help the drivers, but also give the fans more racing action. Instead of the normal weekend format (Three practice sessions, qualifying, and the race), a sprint weekend format is a little different. There will be only one practice session, and two qualifying sessions (one for the sprint race and one for the main race). The sprint race will occur between the sprint qualifying session (AKA sprint shootout) and the main race qualifying session.
Author's Note 3: By the end of this weekend, 23 drivers will be listed on the Drivers' Championship. Oliver Bearman was a replacement driver for Carlos Sainz for the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix and Kevin Magnussen for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. Also, Franco Calapinto has replaced Logan Sargeant at Williams, and Liam Lawson has replaced Daniel Ricciardo at RB for the remainder of the season. Since the Austin Grand Prix will be Lawson's first drive of the season, he will not appear on the Drivers' Championship Standings until the end of this race weekend.
Here is a look at the current Drivers' and Constructors' standings before the race weekend:
Drivers' Championship Standings:
Max Verstappen 362 points
Lando Norris 315 points
Charles Leclerc 291 points
Oscar Piastri 251 points
Carlos Sainz 240 points
Lewis Hamilton 189 points
George Russell 177 points
Sergio Perez 150 points
Fernando Alonso 62 points
Nico Hulkenberg 31 points
Lance Stroll 24 points
Yuki Tsunoda 22 points
Kevin Magnussen 14 points
Alexander Albon 12 points
Daniel Ricciardo 12 points
Pierre Gasly 9 points
Oliver Bearman 7 points
Franco Colapinto 5 points
Esteban Ocon 5 points
Liam Lawson 2 points
Zhou Guanyu 0 points
Logan Sargeant 0 points
Valtteri Bottas 0 points
Constructor's Championship Standings:
McLaren 566 points
Ferrari 537 points
Red Bull 512 points
Mercedes 366 points
Aston Martin 86 points
Haas 46 points
Racing Bulls 36 points
Williams 17 points
Alpine 14 points
Kick Sauber 0 points
Standings were found at F1.com.
Alpine
Last weekend, Alpine's upgrades gave them some signs of life. Esteban Ocon qualified 19th and finished 13th, while Pierre Gasly qualified 8th and finished 10th.
Looking into the weekend in Brazil, Alpine will have another opportunity to show some good pace. With both drivers having the full upgrade package, a points finish, or at least around the points, should be the goal for Alpine. Both drivers have looked good as of late, showing that they can keep up with the midfield if given the proper car.
This weekend is a Sprint weekend as well, giving Alpine an extra opportunity to score some points. Though it'll be difficult, with teams like RB and Haas performing well, the possibility is still there for Alpine. They just have to take it.
Main Race/Sprint Race Prediction
Ceiling: 8th-12th place finish for both drivers
Floor: 13th-16th place finish for both drivers
Aston Martin
Aston Martin will look to bounce back from a poor performance last weekend in Mexico. Lance Stroll started 14th and finished 11th, while Fernando Alonso started 13th and did not finish the race due to a mechanical failure within his car.
Aston Martin has been an absolute disaster at the end of the season. The pace is fading with each race. Stroll has been miles off Alonso's pace, and they have not put together a competitive performance since Azerbaijan.
The goal for Aston Martin this weekend is to show that they still want to compete this year. Yes, as the races go on, the reason to fight is fading; however, Aston Martin still needs to assess if their driver lineup is fit to execute their future goals. It is basically impossible to see a world where Lawrence Stroll (CEO of Aston Martin Racing) fires his son Lance, but it is also difficult to envision Stroll being any better than he is right now. Do not expect much from Aston Martin. I expect them to be right where they've been the past couple of weekends, which is basically in no-man's-land.
Main Race/Sprint Race Prediction
Ceiling: 8th-12th place finish for Alonso and 11th-14th place finish for Stroll
Floor: 12th-15th place finish for Alonso and 13th-16th place finish for Stroll
Ferrari
Ferrari had a dominant performance for the second time in a row last weekend. Carlos Sainz started and finished in 1st, while Charles Leclerc qualified 4th and finished 3rd (He also drove the fastest lap of the race).
With extra points on the line this weekend due to the Sprint format, Ferrari has a major opportunity to make a significant dent in McLaren's lead in the Constructors' Championship. Ferrari's pace has been absolutely rapid lately, with both drivers being the quickest they've been all year long.
Ferrari is peaking at exactly the right time. With Lando Norris and Max Verstappen so focused on fighting each other, they've allowed Ferrari to take advantage in both of the last two races. With both Championships so close, a fight for the lead will be imminent. Do not be surprised if Ferrari takes advantage of their opportunities once again in Brazil.
Main Race/Sprint Race Prediction
Ceiling: 1st-3rd place finish for both drivers
Floor: 4th-6th place finish for both drivers
Haas
Haas arguably had one of their best all-around performances of the season in Mexico last weekend. Kevin Magnussen qualified and finished 7th, while Nico Hulkenberg qualified 10th and finished 9th.
News just broke this morning that Affiliate driver Oliver Bearman will be filling in for Magnussen for at least FP1 and the Sprint Qualifying session. This is due to Magnussen being unfit to drive today due to an illness. The team will assess whether or not Magnussen will be ready to drive on Saturday, but in the event where he is not, Bearman will be his replacement.
With that being said, Haas has been on fire. Everything seems to be going right for them. Team Principal Ayao Komatsu has done an incredible job turning a team that was rumored to leave the sport due to their lack of performance into a competitive midfield team.
With both Magnussen (who hopefully will be well enough to drive) and Hulkenberg driving extremely well, expect Haas to be right up at the top of the midfield, and possibly producing top-10 finishes in both the Sprint and the Grand Prix.
Main Race/Sprint Race Prediction
Ceiling: 7th-10th place finish for both drivers
Floor: 11th-14th place finish for both drivers
Kick Sauber
Sauber may have had one of their best weekends since the first race of the year last time out. Valtteri Bottas qualified 15th and finished 14th, while Zhou Guanyu started 20th and finished 15th.
Though it was a positive weekend for Sauber's standards in Mexico, it is hard to believe they can repeat what they did last weekend in Brazil. The car is just too slow, and the rest of the teams are so far ahead of them pace-wise and talent-wise.
It is always difficult to predict how a weekend will go for a team like Sauber, other than thinking that they will finish at the bottom of the grid again. There should not be any hope remaining for this team.
Main Race/Sprint Race Prediction:
Ceiling: 16th-18th place finish for both drivers
Floor: Bottom two places on the grid
McLaren
McLaren was unable to capitalize on their opportunities last weekend in Mexico, but they have another great opportunity to fight back in Brazil. Lando Norris qualified 3rd and finished 2nd, while Oscar Piastri qualified 17th and finished 8th.
McLaren has had the fastest car since Miami. However, there have been many instances where the team as a whole has not lived up to the moment. Norris should have won the race last weekend; his car was the quickest, and his form has been spectacular all season long. Did Max Verstappen ruin that chance? Maybe, but Norris keeps putting himself in a position where he has to keep attacking Verstappen, rather than defending from him. With Verstappen having a 5-place grid penalty due to an engine change, Norris should not have to worry about fighting him at the beginning of the race.
Piastri also needs to step up. He has been on a poor run of form in the past few weekends. Everyone knows what he can do with the car, and the pace he can provide. If McLaren wants to hold onto their Constructors' Championship lead, Piastri needs to be in the fight for race wins, or at least be in a position where he can help his teammate at the front of the grid.
Main Race/Sprint Race Prediction
Ceiling: 1st-4th place finish for both drivers
Floor: 4th-6th place finish for both drivers
Mercedes
Mercedes produced a much better weekend last time out. George Russell qualified and finished in 5th, while Lewis Hamilton started 6th and finished 4th.
Mercedes has always been good around São Paulo. Russell had his first-ever win here, while Hamilton always puts his all into the race, as he always calls Brazil his "Home away from home."
If Mercedes can build on the positives they brought last weekend, they have a pretty good chance of getting some decent points this weekend. With only four races to go, Mercedes will do everything they can to get at least one more race win with Lewis; what better time than to get it done at his second home?
Main Race/Sprint Race Prediction:
Ceiling: 1st-4th place finish for both drivers
Floor: 5th-7th place finish for both drivers
Racing Bulls
RB had an absolute nightmare of a race last time out. Yuki Tsnuoda qualified 11th but did not finish the race due to a crash on the first corner of lap 1, while Liam Lawson qualified 12th and finished 16th.
Though the race didn't go as planned, both drivers were able to show strong pace in qualifying, which is a positive sign. The biggest thing for RB this weekend is for both drivers to drive a clean race and finish the entirety of the weekend. In order to really assess which driver Red Bull wants to move forward with, they need to finish weekends without collisions.
Main Race/Sprint Race Prediction
Ceiling: 7th-10th place finish for both drivers
Floor: 12th-15th place finish for both drivers
Red Bull
Red Bull will like to forget what happened in Mexico last week, and rathe rlook forward to what could happen in Brazil this weekend. Max Verstappen qualified 2nd and finished 6th, while Sergio Perez qualified 18th and finished 17th.
There is a lot to look out for in Brazil for Red Bull. First, Verstappen will have a 5-place grid penalty due to an engine change. Since the car isn't close to what it used to be, Verstappen may feel the need to get his elbows out in order to gain back places. As we've seen on many occasions, sometimes those aggressive elbows of Max are too much, which costs him dearly. Max needs a clean race this weekend if he wants a chance to fight back for a top spot.
Secondly, Sergio Perez. Whether there is still a chance he can prove why he deserves a seat, or if he's just driving on borrowed time, is unknown. One thing is for certain, and that is Perez needs a good finish, for his pride if nothing else.
Main Race/Sprint Race Prediction:
Ceiling: 1st-4th place finish for Verstappen and 8th-10th place finish for Perez
Floor: 4th-6th place finish for Verstappen and 15th-17th place finish for Perez
Williams
Williams was hit with a string of unlucky events last time out in Mexico. Alex Albon qualified 9th but did not finish the race due to a collision with Yuki Tsunoda on lap 1, while Franco Colapinto qualified 16th and finished 12th.
The biggest thing for Williams this weekend in Brazil is to finally see both drivers compete against one another legitimately. Though Colapinto continues to impress, Albon's slump has prevented Williams from comparing the two when they are both at their best.
If it weren't for the crash on lap one last weekend, Williams probably would have been able to see their drivers compete against each other. Albon had a fantastic qualifying session, which has not really happened since Colapinto came into the fold. Look for this weekend to be the first in which Albon and Colapinto's pace is similar.
Main Race/Sprint Race Prediction:
Ceiling: 8th-11th place finish for both drivers
Floor: 12th-15th place finish for both drivers
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Catch you next time!
-Matt Hylen
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