Bahrain Grand Prix Race Preview
- Matt Hylen
- 3 days ago
- 11 min read
Round 4 is underway here in the 2025 Formula 1 season; we are in Bahrain for this one. It is strange seeing Bahrain weekend this late in the year since it has been race one for the past five years, but it is good to be back at a track where cars' true performance will show. There is no hiding on this track, so much to the point that I think we will get a great look at where the cars truly stack up among the rest of the grid. Overtaking is also much less difficult than that of the Japanese Grand Prix, so buckle up and expect far better action come race time!
Before we get into the Preview, here's how the standings work:
Formula One has two main championship competitions. The first is the Drivers' Championship, which is a competition between the drivers' individual performance. On a non-Sprint style weekend, the drivers who finish in the top 10 in each race will score points (the higher you place, the more points you get). These points are added up, and whichever driver finishes with the most points at the end of the season will win the Drivers' Championship.
The next is the Constructors' Championship, a competition between the teams. The number of points the drivers within a team get each race is combined, creating the total points for the team (E.g., Lando Norris has scored 62 points, and Oscar Piastri has scored 49 points, giving the McLaren team 111 points in the Constructors' Championship). The team whose drivers accumulate the most points combined for their team will win the Constructors' Championship.
Now, here is a look at the standings for both Championships:
Drivers' Championship Standings:
Lando Norris 62 points
Max Verstappen 61 points
Oscar Piastri 49 points
George Russell 45 points
Andrea Kimi Antonellii 30 points
Charles Leclerc 20 points
Alexander Albon 18 points
Lewis Hamilton 15 points
Esteban Ocon 10 points
Lance Stroll 10 points
Nico Hulkenberg 6 points
Oliver Bearman 5 points
Isak Hadjar 4 points
Yuki Tsunoda 3 points
Carlos Sainz 1 points
Pierre Gasly 0 points
Fernando Alonso 0 points
Liam Lawson 0 points
Jack Doohan 0 points
Gabriel Bortoletto 0 points
Constructors' Championship Standings:
McLaren 111 points
Mercedes 75 points
Red Bull 61 points
Ferrari 35 points
Williams 19 points
Haas 15 points
Aston Martin 10 points
Racing Bulls 7 points
Kick Sauber 6 points
Alpine 0 points
Standings were found at F1.com.
Alpine
I feel that this is a big weekend for Alpine. With no new upgrades coming to the car this weekend, the team needs to show that they can truly fight for points. They had a lot of promise in Japan a week ago, however we need to see that pace not only in qualifying, but in the race.
If there is any time for Pierre Gasly to impress, it's now. We all know how competitive Gasly is, and his desire to compete for points. With that said, Gasly still needs to prove that his talent can go beyond the performance of the car. Is the car great? No, but Alpine is not at a point where their car is a lost cause anymore. There is definitely pace to be found within it, so it is up to the driver to find that pace and bring it to light. However, Gasly has not quite done that this year. If Pierre can somehow find that hidden pace that we saw flashes of last weekend in Japan, the French driver could be in for a good weekend at a track he knows well.
Gasly's teammate, Jack Doohan, is at a crucial point in his young career. Whether it be multiple Q1 exists, to accumulating 4 penalty points (12 will get you a 1-race ban), to multiple crashes in practice (Japan) and a race (Australia), Doohan has had a rough go of things to say the least. With the 2024 breakout and current Alpine Affiliate driver Franco Colapinto waiting in the wings, this is a big weekend for Doohan to turn his fortunes around and produce a good result. Points are a little too much to ask for in my opinion, so if Doohan can finish relatively close to Gasly in qualifying and the race, that is a win.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 7th-10th place finish for Gasly and 12th-14th place finish for Doohan
Floor: 13th-15th place finish for Gasly and 20th place finish for Doohan
Aston Martin
After a roller coaster weekend for Aston Martin, the team needs more consistnency from their drivers if they want any chance of crowing up the Constructors' Championship order. Fernando Alonso proved last week that the car has some quickness to it, and that, handled correctly, can be a points-caliber car.
My main concern going into this weekend in Bahrain is Lance Stroll. Most can assume that the beginning of the season was a fluke for Alonso, but from what we saw in Japan, I am not sure we can't say the same for Stroll. Lance was absolutely horrific in Japan, finishing roughly 22 seconds behind 19th PLACE. That is unacceptable, especially for a driver with much to prove. Considering Stroll's track record and proven inconsistent driving, it is hard to say that his start of the year was not the same as Alonso's... a fluke.
With that said, I think Aston Marin, in terms of car performance, is in a good spot. Though they are not showing any signs of pace in practice, they might just be a setup adjustment away from turning that around. We will see if that theory is correct this weekend, as Bahrain is known for showing a car's true colors, but I like Aston Martin's chances this weekend. Or, at least Fernando's chances. Prove me wrong, Lance!
Prediction:
Ceiling: 8th-10th place finish for Alonso and 11th-13th place finish for Stroll
Floor: 14th-16th place finish for Alonso and 20th place finish for Stroll
Ferrari
Ferrari need to get out of their slump, and there is no better way to do it than with new upgrades. Ferrari have brought their first majpr upgrade package of the season to Bahrain, with the team implementing significant changes to their car's underfloor.
More specifically, the team redesigned the floor fences and the leading edge of the floor tunnel (shown in the image above), while the floor edge wing has also been altered. The swept section at the front of the assembly has been lengthened, and three strakes have been added instead of two.
The diffuser has been redesigned, with modifications to the keel section's shape to enhance flow management at the rear and improve performance across different ride heights. Additionally, there is an update at the back of the car, featuring a new set of winglets on the rear wing.
In simplier terms, these upgrades are hoping to increase the effectiveness of airflow within the car, making the car more effienct, especially in dirty air (air taken in when behind another car. Clean air comes when the car is free of a car around them). The new underfloor should help increase race performance as a whole.
With this in mind, I think we will see a new and improved Ferrari team this weekend. Though I don't think they will be close to McLaren's pace, Ferrari could definitely compete with Mercedes and Red Bull, and possibly, if they stay out of their own way, nab a podium finish.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 3rd-5th place finish for both drivers
Floor: 6th-9th place finish for both drivers
Haas
Haas is set to introduce an upgrade for the race weekend in Bahrain. The team decided to implement a more extensive rear cooling solution this weekend, which includes utilizing a larger rear cannon (a component of the bodywork, typically a large, extended part on the engine cover, that channels cooling air towards the rear outlets) opening.
This upgrade, should track conditions prove it is needed, will help the car's engine cool off at a faster and more efficient rate. The more the engine can be maintained at a cooler rate, the less overheated the engine will get, which allows for improved engine performance. This could help Haas in a major way if the temperatures get too hot on track, as it could give them an edge in preserving the internal temperatures. A great upgrade for Haas, who are in desperate need of consistency.
In terms of expectations, it is difficult to say since it all depends on whether or not the upgrade is needed. It is a track specific upgrade that is only needed in the event of hotter track temps, so if the track is not as hot as they expect, the upgrade will be irrevelant. If the track is hot, I think we can look for an increase in race eprformance from both drivers; if the track is colder than expected, assume more of the same from the team.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 6th-8th place finish for both drivers
Floor: 12th-15th place finish for Bearman and 15th-17th place finish for Ocon
Kick Sauber
Kick Sauber are going into the weekend the same way they go into most weekends. They are slow, uncompetiive, and will be lucky to make a Q2 appearance.
The biggest thing this weekend, and for the season as a whole, is whether or not Gabriel Bortoletto can match Nico Hulkenberg's pace in races. Bahrain will give a great glimpse into whether or not Bortoletteo is ready to take that step or not, even with the car performance being far from decent. With Bortoletto competing against a seasoned veteran in Nico, and Nico competing against time, the only real interesting thing to watch for within the Kick Sauber team is how they stack up against each other.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 14th-16th place finish for both drivers
Floor: 20th place finish for both drivers
McLaren
McLaren not only should dominate this weekend, they need to dominate this weekend.
After what should be considered a missed opportunity in Japan, the team as a whole needs to bounce back. Now, saying a team needs to bounce back after a 2nd and 3rd place finish might sound harsh, but considering where the car is compared to every other car, it isn't really.
McLaren have also put a minor upgrade to their car for Bahrain by updating a component near the front brakes. This adjustment should help with the airflow around that area, thus causing smoother air movement to other crucial parts of the car, such as the underfloor and side sections (also known as sidepods). This kind of improved airflow should enhance the overall performance of the car.
They should have no problem anyways, but if the upgrade works, McLaren cannot let this weekend slip away. What happened in Japan cannot happen again this season if they want a shot at winning both championships.
Prediction:
Ceiling: Race win for both drivers
Floor: 2nd-4th place finish for both drivers
Mercedes
Mercedes will be the biggest wildcard this weekend. The track suits their style of car very nicely, creating an opportunity they have not yet had this season, which is to truly compete in the front.
Granted, George Russell has dialed two podiums in three races so far this year, however, both podiums were uncontested, and far off the two cars in front. I think Rusell, and maybe even Kimi Antonelli, have a shot to shock a lot of people in Bahrain this weekend. They have a well-balanced car, and on a track with a balance of strights and corners, it will bode well for Mercedes.
I also think we will see if Mercedes fixed the cooling issue they had in last year's car. If you go back to last season, Merc struggled mightily on weekends when the temperatures were extremely hot (Bahrain, Singapore, Qatar, etc.), but thrived in colder-weather conditions (Great Britain, Las Vegas, Canada, etc.). So far, there have been no signs of this issue resurfacing, yet we have yet to see a weekend when the conditions will be as hot as Bahrain will.
With that said, Russell and Antonelli have both gotten off to great starts so far this season, which I think shows in Bahrain. Unlike the drivers at Red Bull and Ferrari, they both seem very confident in the car they are driving, which will be huge on a track that heavily relies on car performance.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 3rd-5th place finish for both drivers
Floor: 6th-8th place finish for both drivers
Racing Bulls
With the drama over and the lineup seemingly set for the rest of 2025, Racing Bulls can finally focus on racing. Liam Lawson has already improved since switching from Red Bull, while Isak Hadjar is coming off the best race of his career in Japan.
RB has looked extremely solid all season long and will look to score some more points in Bahrain. Lawson should improve from the last race due to him having more time in the car, and Hadjar is looking rapid right now. No new upgrades to speak of, but so far they have not needed any; they seem like the 5th best car on the rid and should continue to be as such.
The biggest aspect fans should look out for is the race strategy RB comes up with. There have been far too many instances already where the race strategy has ruined one of their driver's races. Points have also been sacrificed because of their poor decision-making mid-race. This needs to be cleaned up if RB wants to put together the results that are expected of them.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 7th-9th for Hadjar and 10th-12th for Lawson
Floor: 11th-13th for Hadjar and 14th-16th for Lawson
Red Bull
Red Bull is an interesting team to preview this week since you never quite know what you are going to get.
For starters, the car itself has no business competing with the top of the grid. I would say it is the 4th or 5th best car when considering just car performance. However, what Red Bull has that no one else does is a man named Max Verstappen, a driver who, no matter how difficult the car is to drive, can win any given race.
Though they are bringing a minor upgrade to the car (redesign of part of the front wing to improve aerodynamics. This upgrade should help in terms of overall car performance), Red Bull has already stated that they do not believe their car will be great this weekend. I say that does not matter. When you have Max Verstappen on your team, anything can happen. We saw that firsthand last weekend in Japan. So, at least for Max's side of things, never count out Red Bull until the checkered flag waves.
His teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, I'm guessing will improve slightly this week. This is such a difficult car to drive since it is so centered around Verstappen's preferences (and even he has said it's difficult to drive), so it may take some more time for Yuki to get in the swing of things before he starts producing high-level results. Don't expect much this weekend from Tsunoda.
Prediction:
Ceiling: Race win for Verstappen and 8th-10th place finish for Tsunoda
Floor: 3rd-6th place finish for Verstappen and 13th-15th place finish for Tsunoda
Williams
Williams still seems to be the 5th or 6th best team on the grid so far; however, I sense there is some sort of underlying issue that we do not know about. With Bahrain known to be a tell in terms of true car performance, I think these issues could come to light this weekend.
With three point-scoring finishes so far, Alex Albon has been at the top of his game. He has been able to fight through the numerous issues that keep popping up mid-session, whether that be in qualifying or the race. For Alson, as long as he keeps doing what he has been doing all year, I think we will see more of the same in Bahrain as what we have seen thus far.
Carlos Sainz, on the other hand, still hasn't figured out the car yet. At some point, the excuses will run out for Sainz, but for now, it is still a little early to draw any conclusions. Sainz is way too talented to be struggling this much, so the point at which he breaks through is inevitable. Will it be this weekend? I think there is a strong possibility.
Prediction:
Ceiling: 7th-10th place finish for both drivers
Floor: 11th-13th place finish for Albon and 13th-15th place finish for Sainz
Stay tuned for more F1 content, and be sure to check out fansonlysportz.com for more sports media content posted daily.
Until next time!
-Matt Hylen
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